| |
Rather than head towards a resolution, the impasse in Cote d'Ivoire is heading towards a quagmire, thanks in no small measure to the intransigence of President Laurent Gbagbo and the clumsiness of exuberant ECOWAS leaders.
The crisis became a conundrum after Nigeria upped its response for stiffer action much faster than it had time to study the problem and its social and ethnic complexities. The problem is not just political. Nigeria was right to ask Gbagbo to respect Ouattara's victory, but it could have given due consideration to the fact that the Constitutional Council had the constitutional power to overrule the electoral commission, and that it was possible electoral malpractices at Ouattara's strongholds in the North might have substantially affected the outcome of the election. ECOWAS should have tried to resolve both issues rather than gloss over them, as if they didn't matter.
The force, or peace enforcement, option is looking increasingly untenable and even unattractive.
If the UN is not keen on war, and will not underwrite a military campaign, Nigeria is in even poorer economic shape to fund any adventure on the west coast, especially after the huge resources committed into ECOMOG yielded questionable dividends.
Hardball, The Nation, January 25
|